Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which largely explains why the Oilers are minor favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you wish to take a look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team could be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is definitely playing a part. You're just playing the percentages. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that crucial 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 preferred to become the first Canadian group considering that Montreal in 1993 to raise the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the money has come in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks with media throughout a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


"I would anticipate that to most likely continue," Cipollini said. "I think we'll probably take a bit more Oilers money even if of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I believe we will end up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The podcast, doesn't buy the Oilers need to be preferred.


"You don't see rematches frequently in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you always ask yourself the apparent concern: Are these two groups much better or even worse than they were in 2015? I 'd state Florida is a better variation of themselves from last year. Edmonton (is) a little worse than in 2015, specifically when you look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing much better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were last year."


Edmonton's captain became the 2nd skater and sixth gamer to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 preferred at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, providing him an opportunity to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they truly going to offer McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the favorite due to the fact that of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they could provide it to him here, however that's something to view as the games start. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't actually standing out ... there is a real life where it could be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has actually long been deemed a weakness on the lineup, a track record that seemed sealed when he was benched two video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a significant factor Edmonton is still playing. He has permitted one or no goals in 5 of his past seven starts, 3 of them nothings.


Another terrific run in the net might put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have told you this was sustainable previously," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd successive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which tiredness might lastly catch up to the Panthers. Or they could simply be on a heating system having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics point to a Panthers champion and though either outcome would be fine with Caesars, a Florida success would be better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "In 2015 was a little bit tougher since more individuals liked Florida, however individuals are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently might go either method and Oklahoma City is heavily preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that might increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I think it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has an opportunity to go six or 7 video games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) take part in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press via AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov hoists the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press through AP, File)