Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so near being a tossup, Florida would likely be favored if the Panthers had home-ice benefit.


But that edge belongs to Edmonton, which largely discusses why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which starts Wednesday.


"However you desire to look at this pie, you could make an argument that either group could be preferred," Caesars Sportsbook head of hockey Karry Shreeve stated. "Home ice is absolutely playing a part. You're just playing the portions. The team that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win approximately 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook lists the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that essential 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to end up being the very first Canadian team given that Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champion Florida, which beat Edmonton in 7 video games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said about 55% of the money has can be found in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) talks to media throughout a press conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


"I would anticipate that to most likely continue," Cipollini stated. "I believe we'll probably take a little bit more Oilers cash just because of Connor McDavid, however this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I think we will end up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, doesn't purchase the Oilers should be favored.


"You do not see rematches too typically in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you always ask yourself the obvious concern: Are these 2 teams better or worse than they were last year? I 'd say Florida is a better version of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) slightly even worse than last year, particularly when you take a look at no Zach Hyman offered for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, but how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they have actually been playing much better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter group than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the second skater and sixth gamer to be granted the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of teammate Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, providing him a chance to make even more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they actually going to provide McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in ?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred because of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they could provide it to him here, however that's something to view as the video games start. If there is a Florida gamer that isn't truly standing out ... there is a genuine world where it might be him again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been deemed a weak point on the roster, a credibility that appeared to be sealed when he was benched 2 games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major reason Edmonton is still playing. He has actually allowed one or absolutely no objectives in five of his previous 7 starts, 3 of them nothings.


Another terrific run in the net might put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have actually told you this was sustainable before," Smith stated of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd consecutive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue could finally reach the Panthers. Or they could simply be on a heating unit having actually won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve said the metrics indicate a Panthers championship and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida success would be much better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "In 2015 was a bit tougher because more people liked Florida, however individuals are everything about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series apparently might go in any case and Oklahoma City is greatly preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I believe it helps the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve stated. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things stay tight, it has a chance to go six or seven video games, which would assist."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press by means of AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov hoists the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press by means of AP, File)