Valspar Championship 2026 Betting Preview, Odds And Picks: Betting On Brooks

The PGA Tour concludes the Florida swing today with the Valspar Championship, as gamers make one final stop before shifting focus towards Texas and, eventually, the Masters.


At Innisbrook's Copperhead Course, the field will face one of the harder and more unique tests on the schedule.


Let's break down the odds, course setup and best bets for this week's Valspar Championship.


Valspar Championship 2026 Odds


Xander Schauffele (+1100 )
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400 )
Viktor Hovland (+1800 )
Akshay Bhatia (+2200 )
Jacob Bridgeman (+2200 )
Justin Thomas (+2200 )
Brooks Koepka (+2500 )
Jordan Spieth (+2500 )
Patrick Cantlay (+2500 )
Corey Conners (+3000 )
Ryo Hisatsune (+3000 )
J.J. Spaun (+3500 )
Sahith Theegala (+3500 )
Austin Smotherman (+4000 )
Ben Griffin (+4000 )
Nicolai Hojgaard (+4000 )
Nick Taylor (+5500 )
Aaron Rai (+6000 )


Copperhead Course: What to Know


Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club - Copperhead Course|Palm, Harbor, Florida
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,352
Greens: Poa Trivialis (16th smallest on Tour).
Fairways: Overseeded Ryegrass (4th narrowest).
Rough: Overseeded Ryegrass (4 inches).
Bunkers: 74.
Water in Play: 6


Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club has 4 courses on home, but Copperhead is the one that's hosted this event since it debuted on Tour back in 2000.


It is among the more underrated stops on the schedule and a design players tend to delight in playing on. You're not getting your typical Florida setup here either. Instead of large fairways and flat terrain, Copperhead features narrow, pine tree-lined passages, a lot of tight doglegs and some noticeable elevation modifications throughout. It's similar to TPC Sawgrass where positioning matters more than simply bombing it off the tee.


Because of that, players are required to club down off the tee, which shifts the advantage far from range and toward method play.


Copperhead isn't a conventional par 71 either. It includes five par threes, all 195 yards or longer, and they rank as the ninth hardest set of par threes on Tour. The 4 par fives are far from simple as well, grading out as the fourth toughest group in spite of being the very best chances for birdies.


It's likewise quite a second-shot course. Around 53% of approach shots come from beyond 175 lawns, with players striking into little, firm greens that are difficult to hold. That's a huge reason why greens in policy relax just 57%, among the most affordable marks on Tour.


You're going to need to be called in with your irons to develop possibilities.


And with motorist used on barely half of tee shots, there isn't much separation off the tee. Strokes gained off the tee hasn't been an essential indication of success here, which puts even more pressure on approach play and the short game.


With greens missed out on as frequently as they are, having the ability to gain strokes around the green becomes a huge benefit when it pertains to saving par and preventing mistakes.


Add in one of the hardest closing stretches on Tour with the Snake Pit, and this becomes more about limiting mistakes and playing what's considered dull golf.


Approach play is the greatest top priority this week, particularly at comparable challenging scoring courses. With a lot of shots coming from 175 lawns and out into little, firm greens, I'm greatly weighting SG: APP and distance from distance.


From there, I'm focusing on players who can handle a grind. That implies taking a look at bogey avoidance, scrambling and SG: ARG, together with great drive portion to stay in position. I'm also considering par 3 and par 5 scoring, putting splits on areas and total efficiency in tough scoring conditions.


Valspar Championship Picks


Brooks Koepka: To Win (27/1)|Top 30 (-125 )


It was a rocky start to Brooks Koepka's return to the Tour, ending up T-56 at the Farmers Insurance Open and then missing the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, however it didn't take wish for him to recover.


Koepka responded with a T-9 at the Cognizant Classic and followed that up with a T-13 finish recently at THE PLAYERS.


This season, among this field, Koepka ranks second in SG: APP. Over the past number of years at courses with tough scoring conditions, he's 21st in that metric, and when you combine that with strong greens in policy numbers and his distance from 175+ yards, it's precisely what you want at a course like this.


He's also 23rd in SG: ARG over his last 36 rounds, which reveals that even if his irons aren't called, he can still offset it around the green.


This field offers an excellent chance for a star player to shine.


J.J. Spaun: To Win (34/1)|Top 30 (-124 )


I went back and forth on whether to shoot on J.J. Spaun today. It hasn't been a terrific start to the year, with his best surface coming last week at THE PLAYERS (T-24), but he's popping in a big way in my design, ranking fourth overall.


He's first in SG: TOT in comparable scoring conditions, 3rd in GIR% over his last 36 rounds, 8th in SG: APP, 10th in Bogey Avoidance and 15th in Good Drive Percentage with a combined club choice off the tee.


The putter has actually cooled down a bit, which is really the primary concern, but if that even returns to average, the rest of his video game is in a strong area for a course like Copperhead.


With the Masters around the corner, Spaun might utilize a strong showing, and this feels like one of the much better chances for him to put it together.


Corey Conners: To Win (35/1)|Top 30 (-120 )


How could I not go back to Corey Conners for a third straight week? The Canadian treated us well at THE PLAYERS. Not only did he hold the lead for a stretch, however he ultimately cashed us a Leading 20 (+168) ticket with a T-13 surface at TPC Sawgrass.


I had him appreciated in my model recently, and the same is occurring once again for the Valspar Championship. He ended up T-8 last year at this occasion and in overall has 12 rounds at Innisbrook, publishing a Real SG mark of +1.63.


Conners ranks 2nd in Bogey Avoidance at tough scoring courses, fourth in SG: APP and 6th in Birdie or Better Percentage. He's been very accurate off the tee with a mixed club choice, he's striking greens in policy at a high rate (second) and has actually done a good job taking benefit of Par 5s.


What hasn't been as strong is the putter, together with his play around the green and on harder Par 3s. Still, he was able to overcome that last week. In a weaker field he might definitely do it once again and really win this thing.


Nicolai Hojgaard: To Win (38/1)|Top 30 (-106 )


This male has actually been a popular betting choice this season, and for great reason.


The 25-year-old hasn't finished worse than T-27, which came recently at THE PLAYERS. His best surfaces consist of a T-3 at the Phoenix Open and a T-6 at the Cognizant Classic.


Hojgaard's irons have actually been called in, the putter has actually been strong and he ranks first in SG: Par 3 over the past number of seasons on average-to-difficult Par 3s.


He'll require to stay constant off the tee and be a bit sharper around the green, but if he can do that, there's no reason he can't discover himself near the top of the leaderboard once again and perhaps even break through for his first PGA Tour win.


Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (39/1)|Top 30 (-102 )


Ryo Hisatsune ended up T-4 at this occasion in 2015, and the season prior he published a T-33. In overall, he's acquired +1.68 strokes per round at Innisbrook.


What's even more persuading is his existing form. He's missed out on simply one cut in eight competitions this season, and that can be found in his very first start of the year at the Sony Open.


His finest results consist of a T-2 at the Farmers, a T-8 at Pebble Beach and a T-13 finish last week at THE PLAYERS.


He ranks sixth in SG: TOT on similar tracks and is likewise 6th in GIR% over his last 36 rounds. He's likewise including a 12th-place mark in Scrambling, 18th in Bogey Avoidance and 32nd in SG: PUTT on Poa Trivialis.


His iron play has actually taken an advance this season and if that continues, it might bring him even further at Innisbrook this time around


Mac Meissner: To Win (90/1)|Top 40 (-108 )


It's time for our dark-horse pick of the week, which belongs to 27-year-old South Carolina native Mac Meissner.


It might be insane to back a gamer coming off back-to-back missed out on cuts, however with him ranking 6th overall in my design today, he's tough to disregard.


Meissner ranks first in Bogey Avoidance, 2nd in Scrambling and seventh in SG: APP at hard courses similar to Copperhead.


He's also carried out well here, finishing T-26 in 2024 and T-28 in 2025, publishing a True SG mark of +1.05.


I believe Meissner's got some value this week. I'll gladly lay -108 for a Top 40, and hope we're likewise sweating a 90/1 outright ticket come Sunday.


Nick Taylor Top 30 Finish (-114 ).
Taylor Pendrith Top 30 Finish (+100 )


Something about those Canadians this week, eh? My design is high up on our pals from the Great White North, and I don't desire to lose out on wagering them to complete Top 30.


I don't believe they have enough to win this competition outright, however I think they'll remain competitive for all four days.


Taylor hasn't missed a cut this season, and his play around the green can carry him through the week.


Meanwhile, Pendrith is showing up 10th in my design.


So let's add these 2 golf enthusiasts to the card also, but just with their Top 30 wagers.


Brooks Koepka: To Win (27/1)|Top 30 (-125 ). Spaun: To Win (34/1)|Top 30 (-124 )
Corey Conners: To Win (35/1)|Top 30 (-120 )
Nicolai Hojgaard: To Win (38/1)|Top 30 (-106 )
Ryo Hisatsune: To Win (39/1)|Top 30 (-102 )
Mac Meissner: To Win (90/1)|Top 40 (-108 )
Nick Taylor Top 30 Finish (-114 )
Taylor Pendrith Top 3o Finish (+100 )