2026 NFL Draft No. 1 General Pick Odds, Mendoza Favored

The 2026 NFL prospects have actually been able to put plenty on film this past college football season, and Fernando Mendoza has actually risen above the pack after leading Indiana to their very first Championship game.


In an unexpected turn of occasions, projected No. 2 quarterback Dante Moore chose to go back to Oregon for his senior year.


Moore has actually been buffooned to the New York Jets with the second overall choice for a while now, and his statement leaves the Jets in limbo.


Here's a take a look at the odds to go No. 1 overall after his announcement:


2026 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick Odds


Fernando Mendoza


-20000


Arvell Reese


David Bailey


+8000


Ty Simpson


+10000


Caleb Downs


Jr.


+12500


Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza (-20000) is the clear preferred to be selected first overall in the 2026 NFL Draft with about four months. Moore's announcement dropped Mendoza's chances from -1000, all the way to -20000.


The Cal-transfer has actually transformed Indiana's team from a strong, defensive-minded system last year to a powerhouse on both sides of the ball. Mendoza has an NFL construct, standing at 6'5, and weighing 225 pounds.


He's completed 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 yards, 33 goals, and 6 interceptions, while leading the Hoosiers to a 13-0 record, a Big Ten Championship, the National Championship, and the No. 1 seed getting in the playoff.


After Moore's announcement, Arvell Reese leapt up to No. 2 at +8000. The Buckeyes linebacker, is an alien that can play off-the-ball linebacker or line up on the edge and rush the QB.


He's extremely strong, fast, and nimble and was popping up all over the tape through the starting parts of the season, however hasn't been as productive in the back half.


Texas Tech's David Bailey's odds have actually also leapt after a piece de resistance at the NFL Combine.


The pass rush stands 6' 3" high, and 250 pounds. in 2025 he acquired 14.5 sacks and 3 required fumbles, and has actually exceeded Rueben Bain Jr who has been docked by scouts for having much shorter arms than traditional elite pass rushes.


Alabama's Simpson (+10000) is the 2nd QB on this list after bring a Crimson Tide offense that can hardly run the ball. The junior has 3,268 passing backyards and 26 touchdowns while throwing 5 choices.


Simpson is smooth and precise with a quick tossing motion that must equate well to the NFL.


Ohio State's security Caleb Downs (+12500) is a forecasted top-ten pick due to his football IQ and do-it-all playstyle where he can cover on the back-end, and come near lay the boom on a running back like a linebacker.


Another protective gamer with +125000 odds to go number one is Miami's defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. The Hurricane is 6'3, 275 lbs and has actually tape-recorded 4.5 sacks and 7.5 deals with for loss while forcing a fumble and getting an interception and has actually dominated in the playoffs.


Arch Manning was the preseason odds-on favorite to go No. 1, but after a slower year than expected he prepares to go back to Texas for another season.


Miami (FL) vs. Indiana: 2026 Championship Game Preview.