Oilers Slightly Favored Over Panthers In Stanley Cup Final Rematch

LAS VEGAS (AP) - The Stanley Cup Final is so close to being a tossup, Florida would likely be preferred if the Panthers had home-ice advantage.


But that edge comes from Edmonton, which mainly describes why the Oilers are slight favorites to win the series, which begins Wednesday.


"However you wish to look at this pie, you might make an argument that either team could be favored," head of hockey Karry Shreeve said. "Home ice is certainly playing a part. You're just playing the percentages. The group that wins Game 1 of the Stanley Cup, they go on to win roughly 75% of the time."


BetMGM Sportsbook notes the Oilers as -130 favorites to win Game 1 and take that important 1-0 series lead. The sportsbook makes Edmonton as the -125 favorite to become the very first Canadian team given that Montreal in 1993 to hoist the Stanley Cup.


Defending champ Florida, which beat Edmonton in seven video games in 2015, is the +105 underdog.


BetMGM trading supervisor Christian Cipollini stated about 55% of the cash has can be found in on the Oilers.


Edmonton Oilers' Connor McDavid (97) speaks to media during a news conference, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup last series against the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


"I would expect that to probably continue," Cipollini stated. "I think we'll most likely take a little bit more Oilers money simply because of Connor McDavid, but this is a rematch. Florida won in 2015, so I think we will wind up getting an even projection."


Hockey handicapper Alex B. Smith, who co-hosts The Ice Guys podcast, does not purchase the Oilers ought to be preferred.


"You do not see rematches too often in the Cup Final," Smith stated. "When you do, you always ask yourself the apparent concern: Are these 2 teams better or worse than they were in 2015? I 'd state Florida is a much better variation of themselves from in 2015. Edmonton (is) a little worse than in 2015, especially when you look at no Zach Hyman available for this series. Connor Brown is returning for Game 1, however how healthy is he going to be?


"I provide the edges to Florida based off of they've been playing better, sound defense. I think they're a tighter team than they were in 2015."


Edmonton's captain ended up being the 2nd skater and 6th player to be awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoffs MVP last season while playing on the losing team.


McDavid leads this postseason in scoring with 26 points, one ahead of colleague Leon Draisaitl, and is the +100 favorite at BetMGM to win the Conn Smythe, giving him a chance to make more history even if the Panthers win.


"Are they really going to give McDavid back-to-back Conn Smythes in losing efforts?" Cipollini asked. "He is the preferred since of the points scored and there's currently a precedent that they could give it to him here, however that's something to see as the video games start. If there is a Florida player that isn't really standing apart ... there is a real life where it might be him once again in a losing effort."


Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner has long been deemed a weakness on the roster, a credibility that seemed sealed when he was benched two video games into the playoffs.


But Skinner is a major factor Edmonton is still playing. He has actually permitted one or no objectives in 5 of his past 7 starts, three of them nothings.


Another excellent run in the internet could put Skinner, listed +3500 at BetMGM, in position to win the Conn Smythe.


"I would not have told you this was sustainable before," Smith said of Skinner's hot play. "Now, with one series left, it definitely is sustainable."


Florida is making its 3rd consecutive appearance in the Stanley Cup Final, another deep run in which fatigue could lastly capture up to the Panthers. Or they might simply be on a heating unit having won 10 of their previous 11 playoff series.


Shreeve stated the metrics indicate a Panthers championship and though either result would be fine with Caesars, a Florida success would be much better.


"I put on ´ t hate where we ´ re at with this one," Shreeve said. "Last year was a bit harder because more individuals liked Florida, but people are all about Edmonton this postseason, which I like."


Because this series obviously might go in either case and Oklahoma City is greatly preferred over Indiana in the NBA Finals, that could increase wagering interest in the Stanley Cup Final.


"I think it assists the NBA is getting the less sexier matchup," Shreeve said. "The more bettable series is going to be Edmonton-Florida. If things remain tight, it has an opportunity to go six or seven video games, which would help."


AP NHL playoffs: https://apnews.com/hub/stanley-cup and https://apnews.com/hub/nhl


Edmonton Oilers' Leon Draisaitl (29) and Connor McDavid (97) participate in practice, Tuesday, June 3, 2025, in Edmonton, Alberta, ahead of Game 1 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup final series versus the Florida Panthers. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press through AP)


FILE - Florida Panthers forward Aleksander Barkov raises the Stanley Cup after beating the Edmonton Oilers in Game 7 of the NHL hockey Stanley Cup Final, Monday, June 24, 2024, in Sunrise, Fla. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press through AP, File)